Adana Demirspor 0-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 15 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.35 xG and Fenerbahçe 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 0.810. Data: 0 Adana Demirspor games / 0 Fenerbahçe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 50% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 22%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 4.55. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 50% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.35 / Fenerbahçe 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.386 / away 0.810 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Fenerbahçe xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 50% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (0.85x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.55
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.15
0.79
Fenerbahçe xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
6%
17.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.79 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Pre-Season
Fenerbahçe
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Fenerbahçe defy the odds to beat Adana Demirspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Adana Demirspor 0-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.35 xG and Fenerbahçe 0.79 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 50% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 22%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Fenerbahçe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.