Adana Demirspor 0-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 25 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Antalyaspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Adana Demirspor's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Adana Demirspor 1W, Antalyaspor 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 54% versus Antalyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 46% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.61 xG and Antalyaspor 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.051 / defence 0.870 | Antalyaspor attack 0.608 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.146. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Adana Demirspor games / 26 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 61% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Antalyaspor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 30% | Antalyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 61% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 37% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.61 / Antalyaspor 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.051 / def 0.870 | Antalyaspor attack 0.608 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Antalyaspor xG
37%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 61% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.61x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
61%
1.63
25%
3.94
13%
7.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.22
0.61
Antalyaspor xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
7.53
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
54%
1.83
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
3%
37.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.61 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 8D 6L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (8W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 6W 4D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.08 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 8D 6L in their last 26 games (1.69 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.83 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 33%, Antalyaspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Adana Demirspor) and 50% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 42% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 50% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Adana Demirspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.61 xG and Antalyaspor 0.61 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Antalyaspor attack 0.61 / defence 1.36, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 61% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 13%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 46%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.