Suphanburi 2-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suphanburi vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suphanburi Municipality Stadium plays host to Suphanburi versus Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Suphanburi have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 3D 0L. Last five: D D D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Suphanburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Port FC are the stronger side — 0.67 PPG clear of the hosts (1.67 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Suphanburi have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Port FC in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Suphanburi half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suphanburi 67% and Port FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 67% | Port FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.44 xG and Port FC 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 1.023 / defence 1.334 | Port FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.347. Data: 3 Suphanburi games / 3 Port FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suphanburi 33% | Draw 31% | Port FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Port FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suphanburi 67% | Port FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suphanburi vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Suphanburi Municipality Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suphanburi 33% | Draw 31% | Port FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Suphanburi 1.44 / Port FC 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Suphanburi attack 1.023 / def 1.334 | Port FC attack 0.836 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Port FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Suphanburi xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Port FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suphanburi vs Port FC kick off?
Suphanburi vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What was the final score in Suphanburi vs Port FC?
Suphanburi 2 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Suphanburi vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What competition is Suphanburi vs Port FC part of?
Suphanburi vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Suphanburi vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Suphanburi a 33% chance of winning, Port FC a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suphanburi vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Suphanburi and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suphanburi vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suphanburi and Port FC in?
Suphanburi (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-D. Port FC (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Suphanburi's attack at 1.02x the league average against Port FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.84x) against Suphanburi's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
33%
3.01
31%
3.25
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Suphanburi xG
Total xG
2.94
1.50
Port FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
7%
13.52
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suphanburi vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Suphanburi and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Suphanburi and 1.50 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Suphanburi vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Suphanburi have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 3D 0L record — D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Suphanburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC's form line: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suphanburi.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suphanburi are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Port FC in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suphanburi
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suphanburi and Port FC in coming into this match?
Suphanburi have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Port FC have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have Suphanburi or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suphanburi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Port FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Suphanburi
0
Draws
1
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Port FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Suphanburi have won 1, Port FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suphanburi and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2022, when Port FC 2-0 Suphanburi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Suphanburi, 67% for Port FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Suphanburi) and 33% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Suphanburi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Port FC in 33%; Suphanburi have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suphanburi home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suphanburi play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Suphanburi's games and 67% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suphanburi vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Suphanburi's recent games and 33% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suphanburi and Port FC tend to score early?
Suphanburi have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Port FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suphanburi defy the odds to beat Port FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suphanburi beat Port FC 2-1 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suphanburi 1.44 xG and Port FC 1.50 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suphanburi attack 1.02 / defence 1.33 against Port FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suphanburi 33% | Draw 31% | Port FC 36%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Suphanburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suphanburi 67%, Port FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suphanburi's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Suphanburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port FC managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.