Suphanburi 1-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suphanburi vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Suphanburi host Muangthong United at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Suphanburi stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Suphanburi at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Muangthong United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suphanburi at 1.50 PPG versus Muangthong United's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Suphanburi have won 0, Muangthong United 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Muangthong United winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Suphanburi trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Muangthong United trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suphanburi 58% and Muangthong United 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 54% | Muangthong United 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.05 xG and Muangthong United 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 1.076 / defence 1.325 | Muangthong United attack 0.807 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 1.095. Data: 24 Suphanburi games / 24 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suphanburi 31% | Draw 32% | Muangthong United 37%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Muangthong United 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Suphanburi 60% | Muangthong United 40%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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