Suphanburi 2-0 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suphanburi vs Bangkok United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Bangkok United travel to Suphanburi Municipality Stadium to take on Suphanburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suphanburi stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suphanburi have posted 1W 3D 3L at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bangkok United — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United's away record: 5W 0D 2L from 7 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bangkok United — 2.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Suphanburi trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bangkok United trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suphanburi 64% versus Bangkok United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 57% | Bangkok United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 0.94 xG and Bangkok United 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 0.895 / defence 1.532 | Bangkok United attack 1.071 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.101. Data: 14 Suphanburi games / 14 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suphanburi 19% | Draw 23% | Bangkok United 58%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Bangkok United 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suphanburi 71% | Bangkok United 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suphanburi vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Suphanburi Municipality Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suphanburi 19% | Draw 23% | Bangkok United 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Suphanburi 0.94 / Bangkok United 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Suphanburi attack 0.895 / def 1.532 | Bangkok United attack 1.071 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Suphanburi xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Bangkok United xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suphanburi vs Bangkok United kick off?
Suphanburi vs Bangkok United kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What was the final score in Suphanburi vs Bangkok United?
Suphanburi 2 - 0 Bangkok United.
Where is Suphanburi vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What competition is Suphanburi vs Bangkok United part of?
Suphanburi vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Suphanburi vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Suphanburi a 19% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suphanburi vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Suphanburi and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Suphanburi vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Bangkok United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suphanburi and Bangkok United in?
Suphanburi (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Bangkok United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Suphanburi's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Bangkok United's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Suphanburi's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
19%
5.20
23%
4.37
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Suphanburi xG
Total xG
2.74
1.81
Bangkok United xG
5.20
19%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
3%
31.71
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suphanburi vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Suphanburi and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Suphanburi and 1.81 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Suphanburi vs Bangkok United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Suphanburi have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 2W 4D 8L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 10W 2D 2L from 14 games, 2.29 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 1.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suphanburi.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Suphanburi have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 5W 0D 2L from 7 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Suphanburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.93 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suphanburi
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suphanburi and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Suphanburi have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 10W 2D 2L in their last 14 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suphanburi at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suphanburi at home: 0.86 PPG; Bangkok United away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Suphanburi or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suphanburi have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suphanburi and Bangkok United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Suphanburi
0
Draws
1
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Bangkok United?
From 2 meetings on record, Suphanburi have won 1, Bangkok United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suphanburi and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2022, when Bangkok United 5-2 Suphanburi.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suphanburi 71%, Bangkok United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Suphanburi) and 57% (Bangkok United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 43%; Suphanburi have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suphanburi home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suphanburi play Bangkok United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suphanburi's games and 43% of Bangkok United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suphanburi vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Suphanburi's matches and 57% of Bangkok United's.
Do Suphanburi and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Suphanburi have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suphanburi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bangkok United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suphanburi beat Bangkok United 2-0 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suphanburi 0.94 xG and Bangkok United 1.81 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Suphanburi beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bangkok United landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suphanburi attack 0.90 / defence 1.53 against Bangkok United attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suphanburi 19% | Draw 23% | Bangkok United 58%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Suphanburi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suphanburi 57%, Bangkok United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suphanburi's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Bangkok United's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Suphanburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suphanburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.