Sukhothai FC 2-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thung Talay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sukhothai FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thung Talay Luang Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sukhothai FC, 0.90 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sukhothai FC 0W, Prachuap 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Prachuap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sukhothai FC half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Prachuap half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 54% and Prachuap 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 49% | Prachuap 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.66 xG and Prachuap 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.977 / defence 0.978 | Prachuap attack 0.898 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.290. Data: 40 Sukhothai FC games / 39 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 48% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 25%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Prachuap 4.00. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 50% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 48% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.66 / Prachuap 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.977 / def 0.978 | Prachuap attack 0.898 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Prachuap xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Sukhothai FC 2 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 48% chance of winning, Prachuap a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Prachuap?
Record (2 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Prachuap in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.98) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.90x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.73
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.13
Prachuap xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
5%
21.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.13 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 12D 16L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.05 PPG from 39 outings (10W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.05 for Prachuap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.63 points per game from 19 outings (2W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.38 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 67%.
Last 39 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 10W 11D 18L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Prachuap away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Prachuap won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Prachuap have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Sukhothai FC 0-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 42%, Prachuap 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sukhothai FC) and 58% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Prachuap in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Sukhothai FC's games and 68% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 58% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sukhothai FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Prachuap 2-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.66 xG and Prachuap 1.13 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Prachuap attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 48% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 25%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 49%, Prachuap 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Prachuap's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.15 PPG, Prachuap 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.