Ratchaburi 1-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ratchaburi face Uthai Thani.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1 (matchday 19). Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Uthai Thani's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Uthai Thani have posted 3W 1D 4L from their last 8 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Ratchaburi, 1.10 for Uthai Thani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Uthai Thani and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Ratchaburi 0–1 Uthai Thani — a Uthai Thani win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (last 18 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (last 18 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 50% versus Uthai Thani 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 50% | Uthai Thani 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.04 xG and Uthai Thani 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.061 / defence 0.841 | Uthai Thani attack 0.853 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.239. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 48 games and Uthai Thani's last 18.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 14%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.59 | Draw 4.31 | Uthai Thani 7.12. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (63%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Uthai Thani's last 8 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 70% (last 10 home games) | Uthai Thani 50% (last 8 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Ratchaburi 2.04 / Uthai Thani 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.061 / def 0.841 | Uthai Thani attack 0.853 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Uthai Thani xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani FAQs
What time does Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Ratchaburi 1 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani part of?
Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 19) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 63% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.06x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.85x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Ratchaburi's last 48 games and Uthai Thani's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.31
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.93
0.89
Uthai Thani xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
2%
54.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.89 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 4D 7L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.11 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ratchaburi's home form reads 5W 0D 2L across their last 7 home games, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 7 away games (3W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.17 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
Ratchaburi (Home) vs Uthai Thani (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ratchaburi
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani Form FAQs
What form are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Uthai Thani away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.14 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ratchaburi have won 4, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Ratchaburi 3-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 57%, Uthai Thani 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ratchaburi and 71% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ratchaburi's games and 57% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ratchaburi's matches and 71% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 71% of Uthai Thani's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Uthai Thani 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Uthai Thani 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.04 xG and Uthai Thani 0.89 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Uthai Thani landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.06 / defence 0.84 against Uthai Thani attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 14%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 50%, Uthai Thani 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.39 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.