Ratchaburi 0-0 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Police Tero at Mitr Phol Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Mitr Phol Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ratchaburi at 1.50 PPG versus Police Tero's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 0 for Police Tero and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 50% versus Police Tero 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 46% | Police Tero 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.13 xG and Police Tero 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.922 / defence 1.137 | Police Tero attack 0.842 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.091. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Ratchaburi games / 22 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 30% | Police Tero 33%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Police Tero 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 60% | Police Tero 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 30% | Police Tero 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Ratchaburi 1.13 / Police Tero 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.922 / def 1.137 | Police Tero attack 0.842 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Police Tero xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Police Tero kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Police Tero kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Ratchaburi 0 - 0 Police Tero.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Police Tero part of?
Ratchaburi vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 37% chance of winning, Police Tero a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ratchaburi and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Police Tero?
Record (1 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 1 | Police Tero 0W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Police Tero in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Police Tero (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.35
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.17
1.04
Police Tero xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.04 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 6D 9L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Police Tero sit at 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (6W 10D 6L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.23 PPG, Police Tero on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ratchaburi's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Police Tero have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 6W 10D 6L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Police Tero away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.55 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Police Tero have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Police Tero 0-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Police Tero?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 54%, Police Tero 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ratchaburi) and 46% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi have failed to score in 27% of games; Police Tero in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 54% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 46% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Police Tero tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ratchaburi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Ratchaburi and Police Tero drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.13 xG and Police Tero 1.04 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ratchaburi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Police Tero landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Police Tero attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 30% | Police Tero 33%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 46%, Police Tero 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Police Tero's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.23 PPG, Police Tero 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.