Ratchaburi 3-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 49%, yet in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to Mitr Phol Stadium to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 November 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mitr Phol Stadium, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mitr Phol Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Mitr Phol Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 50% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 42% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.50 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.037 / defence 1.087 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.779 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.162. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Ratchaburi games / 12 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 49% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 49% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Ratchaburi 1.50 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.037 / def 1.087 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.779 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Ratchaburi 3 - 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 49% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.04) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.85
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.49
0.98
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
18.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.98 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 3W 3D 6L from 12 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 4L across 12 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nakhon Ratchasima FC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.50 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Ratchaburi won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ratchaburi) and 25% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ratchaburi's games and 75% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 25% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-2 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.50 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.04 / defence 1.09 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.42, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 49% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 42%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Ratchaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.