Ratchaburi 2-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ratchaburi lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (49 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (49 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 49% versus Lamphun Warrior 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 33% | Lamphun Warrior 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.60 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.963 / defence 0.779 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.120 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.187. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Ratchaburi games / 49 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 48% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 22%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Lamphun Warrior 4.55. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 48% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Ratchaburi 1.60 / Lamphun Warrior 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.963 / def 0.779 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.120 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lamphun Warrior xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Ratchaburi 2 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 48% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (3 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 2 | Lamphun Warrior 0W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (1.12x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.41
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.64
1.03
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
4%
22.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.03 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 17W 16D 16L from 49 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 19L across 49 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.31 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 10W 8D 4L from 22 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.18 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 17W 16D 16L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 13D 19L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.73 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 5-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 59%, Lamphun Warrior 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Ratchaburi) and 46% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 41% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 46% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Lamphun Warrior 2-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.60 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.03 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.96 / defence 0.78 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 48% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 22%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 33%, Lamphun Warrior 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (49 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (49 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.37 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.