Ratchaburi 1-2 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Ayutthaya FC at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ratchaburi at 1.90 PPG versus Ayutthaya FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 52% versus Ayutthaya FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 48% | Ayutthaya FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.31 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.010 / defence 0.888 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.960 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.133. Data: 51 Ratchaburi games / 23 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 33% | Ayutthaya FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Ayutthaya FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 40% | Ayutthaya FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 33% | Ayutthaya FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Ratchaburi 1.31 / Ayutthaya FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.010 / def 0.888 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.960 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ayutthaya FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 2 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 42% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (1 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 0 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
42%
2.38
33%
3.03
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.28
0.97
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
7%
14.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.97 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 15W 3D 5L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 7W 8D 8L from 23 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ayutthaya FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 2.09 PPG from 11 outings (7W 2D 2L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 4D 2L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.26 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 15W 3D 5L in their last 23 games (2.09 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.09 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
0
Draws
1
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-2 Ayutthaya FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 36%, Ayutthaya FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ratchaburi) and 46% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 54% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 46% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ayutthaya FC defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ayutthaya FC beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.31 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 33% | Ayutthaya FC 25%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Ayutthaya FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 48%, Ayutthaya FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Ayutthaya FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.