Prachuap 5-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Prachuap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 April 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Prachuap.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 60% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 54% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.27 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.832 / defence 1.023 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.941 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.188. Data: 55 Prachuap games / 55 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 39% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Nong Bua Pitchaya lead the H2H ledger, but Prachuap carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 70% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 39% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Prachuap 1.27 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.832 / def 1.023 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.941 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Prachuap 5 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 39% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (3 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.83) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.59
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.42
1.14
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.14 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 14W 14D 27L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 17W 13D 25L from 55 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.02 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (7W 8D 12L).
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 5W 7D 15L from 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.16 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 14W 14D 27L in their last 55 games (1.02 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 17W 13D 25L in their last 55 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Prachuap's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.07 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when Prachuap won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Prachuap
0
Draws
4
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 59%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Prachuap) and 63% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Prachuap have failed to score in 26% of games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Prachuap's games and 70% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Prachuap's recent games and 63% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 5-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.27 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.14 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 39% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 54%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.02 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.