Prachuap 3-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chonburi FC (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Prachuap face Chonburi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Chonburi FC travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 December 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sam Ao Stadium, Prachuap have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Chonburi FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Prachuap, 3 for Chonburi FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 3–1 with Prachuap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 64% versus Chonburi FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 55% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.35 xG and Chonburi FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.812 / defence 1.064 | Chonburi FC attack 1.041 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.301. Data: 42 Prachuap games / 42 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 35% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Chonburi FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Chonburi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 35% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Prachuap 1.35 / Chonburi FC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.812 / def 1.064 | Chonburi FC attack 1.041 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Chonburi FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Prachuap 3 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC part of?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 35% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Prachuap and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
35%
2.90
27%
3.72
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.79
1.44
Chonburi FC xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.44 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Prachuap have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 10W 11D 21L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 15W 8D 19L from 42 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 0.98 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chonburi FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 10W 11D 21L in their last 42 games (0.98 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chonburi FC away?
Prachuap's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.30 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Chonburi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Prachuap at 65%, Chonburi FC at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Prachuap) and 60% (Chonburi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Prachuap's games and 70% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Prachuap's matches and 60% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Prachuap and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Chonburi FC 3-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.35 xG and Chonburi FC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Chonburi FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 35% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 39%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 55%, Chonburi FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 0.98 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.