Port FC 3-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Port FC welcome Uthai Thani to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Uthai Thani — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Port FC, 0 for Uthai Thani and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 56% versus Uthai Thani 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 49% | Uthai Thani 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.04 xG and Uthai Thani 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.259 / defence 0.716 | Uthai Thani attack 1.047 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.219. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Port FC's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Port FC games / 43 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 14%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 50% | Uthai Thani 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Port FC 2.04 / Uthai Thani 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.259 / def 0.716 | Uthai Thani attack 1.047 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Port FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Uthai Thani xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Port FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Port FC 3 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Port FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Port FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 61% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Port FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (4 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 3 | Uthai Thani 0W.
What form are Port FC and Uthai Thani in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
61%
1.63
25%
4.05
14%
7.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.95
0.91
Uthai Thani xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
7.19
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
2%
55.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Port FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Port FC and 0.91 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC's recent record stands at 20W 12D 11L from 43 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 16L across 43 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Uthai Thani heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 9W 8D 3L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 4W 5D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.40 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 12W 15D 16L in their last 43 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Port FC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.75 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Port FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Port FC
3
Draws
0
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Port FC have won 3, Uthai Thani have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Uthai Thani?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 60%, Uthai Thani 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Port FC) and 50% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Port FC's games and 60% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Port FC's recent games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Uthai Thani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Uthai Thani 3-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.04 xG and Uthai Thani 0.91 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.72 against Uthai Thani attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 61% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 14%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 49%, Uthai Thani 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.