Port FC 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Ratchaburi travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 November 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at PAT Stadium this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Port FC 1.40 PPG, Ratchaburi 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 54% versus Ratchaburi 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 46% | Ratchaburi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.28 xG and Ratchaburi 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.009 / defence 1.110 | Ratchaburi attack 0.743 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 1.225. Ratchaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Port FC games / 11 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 43% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 29%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Ratchaburi 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 33% | Ratchaburi 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 43% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Port FC 1.28 / Ratchaburi 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.009 / def 1.110 | Ratchaburi attack 0.743 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.031 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Port FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Ratchaburi xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 11 November 2021 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Port FC 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Port FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 43% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Port FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.55
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.29
1.01
Ratchaburi xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Port FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Port FC and 1.01 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Port FC have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 4W 3D 4L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.36 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Port FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Ratchaburi in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Port FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Port FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 33%, Ratchaburi 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Port FC) and 50% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Port FC's recent matches and 67% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Port FC's recent games and 50% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.28 xG and Ratchaburi 1.01 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against Ratchaburi attack 0.74 / defence 1.23, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 43% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 29%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 46%, Ratchaburi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.36 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.