Port FC 5-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 26 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Prachuap are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Port FC 1W, Prachuap 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Prachuap winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 48% versus Prachuap 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 48% | Prachuap 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.10 xG and Prachuap 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 0.910 / defence 0.855 | Prachuap attack 1.149 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.146. Data: 31 Port FC games / 32 Prachuap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 35% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 36%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Prachuap 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 30% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 35% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Port FC 1.10 / Prachuap 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 0.910 / def 0.855 | Prachuap attack 1.149 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Prachuap xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Port FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Port FC 5 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Port FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Prachuap part of?
Port FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 35% chance of winning, Prachuap a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Port FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
Record (2 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in?
Port FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Prachuap (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (1.15x) against Port FC's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (31/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
35%
2.87
29%
3.46
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.23
1.13
Prachuap xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Port FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Port FC and 1.13 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC's recent record stands at 11W 7D 13L from 31 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 16L across 31 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Port FC against 1.06 for Prachuap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Prachuap's away record stands at 5W 3D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 11W 7D 13L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 9W 6D 16L in their last 31 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Prachuap away?
Port FC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.75 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Port FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Prachuap in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Port FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Prachuap have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Prachuap?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 31%, Prachuap 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Port FC) and 62% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Prachuap in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Port FC's recent matches and 56% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Port FC's recent games and 62% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Prachuap 5-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.10 xG and Prachuap 1.13 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.85 against Prachuap attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 35% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 36%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 48%, Prachuap 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.29 PPG, Prachuap 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.