Port FC 3-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Port FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Port FC, 2 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 56% versus Lamphun Warrior 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 52% | Lamphun Warrior 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.09 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.307 / defence 0.721 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.863 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.148. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Port FC's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Port FC games / 52 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 68% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 10%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Lamphun Warrior 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 40% | Lamphun Warrior 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 68% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 46% | xG Port FC 2.09 / Lamphun Warrior 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.307 / def 0.721 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.863 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Port FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Lamphun Warrior xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Port FC 3 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 68% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Port FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (7 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 2 | Lamphun Warrior 2W.
What form are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
68%
1.47
22%
4.52
10%
9.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.81
0.71
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
9.99
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
12%
8.11
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
1%
81.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Port FC and 0.71 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 52 games, going 25W 13D 14L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.12 PPG from 52 outings (12W 22D 18L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 15W 8D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (4W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 25W 13D 14L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 12W 22D 18L in their last 52 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Port FC's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.04 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 62%, Lamphun Warrior 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Port FC) and 42% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Port FC's games and 58% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Port FC's recent games and 42% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Lamphun Warrior 3-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.09 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.71 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.31 / defence 0.72 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 68% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 10%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 52%, Lamphun Warrior 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.