Police Tero 1-1 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pattaya United at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Police Tero vs Pattaya United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Police Tero welcome Pattaya United to Boonyachinda Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Police Tero — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.33 points per game. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pattaya United stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Thai League 1 matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pattaya United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pattaya United — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.33 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Police Tero register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Pattaya United in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Police Tero in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pattaya United in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 67% and Pattaya United 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Police Tero 67% | Pattaya United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.30 xG and Pattaya United 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.943 / defence 1.150 | Pattaya United attack 0.900 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.347. Data: 3 Police Tero games / 3 Pattaya United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Police Tero 32% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 36%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Pattaya United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pattaya United at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pattaya United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 67% | Pattaya United 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Pattaya United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 32% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Police Tero 1.30 / Pattaya United 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.943 / def 1.150 | Pattaya United attack 0.900 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Pattaya United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Pattaya United xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Pattaya United kick off?
Police Tero vs Pattaya United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Pattaya United?
Police Tero 1 - 1 Pattaya United.
Where is Police Tero vs Pattaya United being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Pattaya United part of?
Police Tero vs Pattaya United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Pattaya United?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 32% chance of winning, Pattaya United a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pattaya United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Pattaya United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Police Tero and Pattaya United will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Pattaya United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Pattaya United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Police Tero and Pattaya United in?
Police Tero (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-L-L. Pattaya United (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Police Tero's attack at 0.94x the league average against Pattaya United's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pattaya United's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattaya United Win
32%
3.16
32%
3.08
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.70
1.39
Pattaya United xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
8%
12.72
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Pattaya United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Pattaya United expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.39 for Pattaya United, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Pattaya United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Police Tero have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattaya United's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Pattaya United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pattaya United are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Police Tero.
Goals in Recent Form
Police Tero are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Pattaya United are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Pattaya United in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Early Season
Pattaya United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Pattaya United in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Pattaya United have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Police Tero or Pattaya United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Police Tero have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pattaya United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Police Tero
2
Draws
0
Pattaya United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Pattaya United?
From 2 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 0, Pattaya United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Pattaya United last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Pattaya United 1-1 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pattaya United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Police Tero at 67%, Pattaya United at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Police Tero and 67% for Pattaya United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattaya United in 33%; Police Tero have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Pattaya United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Pattaya United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Police Tero's games and 67% of Pattaya United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Pattaya United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Police Tero's matches and 67% of Pattaya United's.
Do Police Tero and Pattaya United tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattaya United in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Police Tero and Pattaya United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Police Tero and Pattaya United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.30 xG and Pattaya United 1.39 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Pattaya United attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 32% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 36%, with Pattaya United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 67%, Pattaya United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Pattaya United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pattaya United arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Police Tero conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Pattaya United managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.