Police Tero 2-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chiangrai United make the trip to Boonyachinda Stadium to face Police Tero in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 12 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Police Tero (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Police Tero at Boonyachinda Stadium this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boonyachinda Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Police Tero are significantly better at Boonyachinda Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Chiangrai United away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Police Tero against 1.30 for Chiangrai United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Police Tero, 1 for Chiangrai United and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Police Tero goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 58% versus Chiangrai United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 48% | Chiangrai United 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.50 xG and Chiangrai United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.928 / defence 0.879 | Chiangrai United attack 1.040 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.211. Data: 59 Police Tero games / 59 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 46% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 27%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Chiangrai United 3.70. Police Tero hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Police Tero are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Police Tero if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 50% | Chiangrai United 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 46% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Police Tero 1.50 / Chiangrai United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.928 / def 0.879 | Chiangrai United attack 1.040 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Chiangrai United xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Police Tero vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Police Tero 2 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Police Tero vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Chiangrai United part of?
Police Tero vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 46% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Police Tero and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chiangrai United?
Record (3 meetings): Police Tero 1W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Police Tero and Chiangrai United in?
Police Tero (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Police Tero's attack rating (0.93) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (1.04x) against Police Tero's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.69
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.61
1.11
Chiangrai United xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
6%
16.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.11 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Police Tero come into this having played 59 games, going 18W 23D 18L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.54 PPG from 59 outings (25W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Police Tero against 1.54 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Police Tero's home form reads 11W 13D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 1.59 points per game from 29 outings (13W 7D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Police Tero are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.29 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Current Season
Chiangrai United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 18W 23D 18L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 25W 16D 18L in their last 59 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Chiangrai United away?
Police Tero's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.59 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Police Tero or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Police Tero have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Police Tero have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Police Tero
2
Draws
1
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chiangrai United?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Police Tero 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Chiangrai United?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 55%, Chiangrai United 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Police Tero) and 52% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Police Tero's games and 59% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Police Tero's recent games and 52% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Police Tero edge out Chiangrai United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Chiangrai United 2-1 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.50 xG and Chiangrai United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Chiangrai United attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 46% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 27%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 48%, Chiangrai United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.31 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Police Tero win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.