Pattaya United 1-3 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pattaya United at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Pattaya United welcome Chiangmai United to Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattaya United have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pattaya United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangmai United stand at 0W 2D 2L from 4 Thai League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chiangmai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattaya United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Pattaya United in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Chiangmai United in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattaya United 75% and Chiangmai United 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattaya United 50% | Chiangmai United 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattaya United 2.11 xG and Chiangmai United 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattaya United attack 1.155 / defence 1.099 | Chiangmai United attack 0.797 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.325. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing Pattaya United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Pattaya United games / 4 Chiangmai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattaya United 57% | Draw 26% | Chiangmai United 18%. Fair-value odds: Pattaya United 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Chiangmai United 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Pattaya United (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pattaya United are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pattaya United 75% | Chiangmai United 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattaya United 57% | Draw 26% | Chiangmai United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Pattaya United 2.11 / Chiangmai United 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Pattaya United attack 1.155 / def 1.099 | Chiangmai United attack 0.797 / def 1.463 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Pattaya United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Pattaya United xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Chiangmai United xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United kick off?
Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United?
Pattaya United 1 - 3 Chiangmai United.
Where is Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What competition is Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United part of?
Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives Pattaya United a 57% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pattaya United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Pattaya United and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Chiangmai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattaya United and Chiangmai United in?
Pattaya United (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D. Chiangmai United (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pattaya United's attack rating (1.16) and Chiangmai United's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangmai United's attack versus Pattaya United's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattaya United Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.89
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Pattaya United xG
Total xG
3.27
1.16
Chiangmai United xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
2%
46.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Pattaya United and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Pattaya United and 1.16 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pattaya United come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 2D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Pattaya United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangmai United sit at 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangmai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattaya United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Chiangmai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Pattaya United are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 1.00 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattaya United have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Chiangmai United in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattaya United
Early Season
Chiangmai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattaya United and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
Pattaya United have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 games (2.00 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pattaya United and Chiangmai United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pattaya United
0
Draws
2
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Pattaya United have won 0, Chiangmai United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattaya United and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Chiangmai United 2-0 Pattaya United.
Who has won more matches between Pattaya United and Chiangmai United?
Chiangmai United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pattaya United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pattaya United at 75%, Chiangmai United at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Pattaya United and 75% for Chiangmai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattaya United home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattaya United play Chiangmai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pattaya United's games and 75% of Chiangmai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattaya United vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Pattaya United's matches and 75% of Chiangmai United's.
Do Pattaya United and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
Pattaya United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangmai United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pattaya United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangmai United beat Pattaya United 1-3 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pattaya United 2.11 xG and Chiangmai United 1.16 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pattaya United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Chiangmai United outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pattaya United attack 1.16 / defence 1.10 against Chiangmai United attack 0.80 / defence 1.46, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pattaya United 57% | Draw 26% | Chiangmai United 18%, with Pattaya United to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Chiangmai United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pattaya United 50%, Chiangmai United 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pattaya United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangmai United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pattaya United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Chiangmai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pattaya United shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangmai United scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.