Pattani vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pattani and Chonburi FC meet at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 24 December 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Pattani (all games): 1W 1D 3L across 5 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Rainbow Stadium, Pattani have gone 0W 1D 2L this season (3 games, 0.33 PPG).
Chonburi FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Pattani goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattani 40% versus Chonburi FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattani 60% | Chonburi FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.89 xG and Chonburi FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.544 / defence 1.098 | Chonburi FC attack 0.855 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Pattani's attack strength of 0.544 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Pattani games / 35 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattani 26% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Chonburi FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pattani 0% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 26% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Pattani 0.89 / Chonburi FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.544 / def 1.098 | Chonburi FC attack 0.855 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Chonburi FC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Pattani vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Thursday 24 December 2026 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Chonburi FC part of?
Pattani vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 26% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pattani and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Chonburi FC in?
Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.54x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.85x) against Pattani's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
26%
3.84
31%
3.19
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.10
1.21
Chonburi FC xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.8 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pattani and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Pattani and 1.21 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pattani come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 0.00 PPG from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 (0.00 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 40%, Chonburi FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Pattani and 60% for Chonburi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattani have failed to score in 60% of games; Chonburi FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Pattani's recent matches and 60% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Pattani's matches and 60% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Pattani and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.