Pattani 0-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattani vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Buriram United make the trip to Rainbow Stadium to face Pattani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pattani have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Buriram United are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Pattani half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattani 50% and Buriram United 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattani 75% | Buriram United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.76 xG and Buriram United 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.620 / defence 1.175 | Buriram United attack 1.156 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.284. Pattani's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Pattani games / 34 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattani 15% | Draw 24% | Buriram United 60%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 6.67 | Draw 4.17 | Buriram United 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pattani 50% | Buriram United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 15% | Draw 24% | Buriram United 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Pattani 0.76 / Buriram United 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.620 / def 1.175 | Buriram United attack 1.156 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Buriram United xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Buriram United kick off?
Pattani vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Rainbow Stadium.
What was the final score in Pattani vs Buriram United?
Pattani 0 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Pattani vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Buriram United part of?
Pattani vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 15% chance of winning, Buriram United a 60% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pattani and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Buriram United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Buriram United in?
Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-W-L-L. Buriram United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pattani's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.16x) against Pattani's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
15%
6.59
24%
4.09
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.50
1.74
Buriram United xG
6.59
15%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
3%
37.68
28%
3.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pattani and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Pattani and 1.74 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Buriram United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pattani's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 0L across 4 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pattani heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Pattani
0
Draws
1
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Buriram United?
From 1 meetings on record, Pattani have won 0, Buriram United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattani and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Pattani 0-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Pattani and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 50%, Buriram United 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Pattani and 50% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattani have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pattani's games and 75% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattani vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Pattani's matches and 50% of Buriram United's.
Do Pattani and Buriram United tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Pattani 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Pattani 0-1 at Rainbow Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pattani 0.76 xG and Buriram United 1.74 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pattani attack 0.62 / defence 1.18 against Buriram United attack 1.16 / defence 0.80, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pattani 15% | Draw 24% | Buriram United 60%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pattani 75%, Buriram United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pattani's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Buriram United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Pattani managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.