Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 2 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Pitchaya Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Ratchaburi in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nong Bua Pitchaya lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Nong Bua Pitchaya half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 52% versus Ratchaburi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 46% | Ratchaburi 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.93 xG and Ratchaburi 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.861 / defence 0.906 | Ratchaburi attack 1.017 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.188. Data: 33 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 33 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 30% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 39%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 30% | Ratchaburi 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 30% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.93 / Ratchaburi 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.861 / def 0.906 | Ratchaburi attack 1.017 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ratchaburi xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 30% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi?
Record (2 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.86) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.02x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
30%
3.29
30%
3.28
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.03
1.10
Ratchaburi xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.5 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.10 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 33 games, going 13W 8D 12L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ratchaburi sit at 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (12W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Nong Bua Pitchaya against 1.36 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 9W 2D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Ratchaburi have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.09 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 13W 8D 12L in their last 33 games (1.42 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Ratchaburi away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.81 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 4-0 on 9 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Ratchaburi 4-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 38%, Ratchaburi 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 31% for Ratchaburi.
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 31% of games; Ratchaburi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 38% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 31% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-2 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.93 xG and Ratchaburi 1.10 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Ratchaburi attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 30% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 39%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%, Ratchaburi 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.42 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.