Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC host Uthai Thani at 80th Birthday Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 80th Birthday Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Uthai Thani — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 1.00 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Uthai Thani 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–7 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Uthai Thani trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus Uthai Thani 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Uthai Thani 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 xG and Uthai Thani 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.743 / defence 1.109 | Uthai Thani attack 0.853 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.097. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 54 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 28%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Uthai Thani 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% | Uthai Thani 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 / Uthai Thani 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.743 / def 1.109 | Uthai Thani attack 0.853 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Uthai Thani xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 39% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (3 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.74x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
39%
2.57
33%
2.99
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.31
1.04
Uthai Thani xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.04 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 11W 16D 27L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani's form line: 15W 18D 21L from 54 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 0.91 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L).
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 5W 7D 15L from 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.31 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 11W 16D 27L in their last 54 games (0.91 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 15W 18D 21L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Uthai Thani won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-0 Uthai Thani.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 63%, Uthai Thani 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 48% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Uthai Thani in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 59% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 48% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nakhon Ratchasima FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 xG and Uthai Thani 1.04 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Uthai Thani landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.11 against Uthai Thani attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 28%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Uthai Thani 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.91 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.