Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sukhothai FC make the trip to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 14 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sukhothai FC (all games): 2W 3D 3L across 8 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.12 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1.12 for Sukhothai FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62% versus Sukhothai FC 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62% | Sukhothai FC 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.72 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.015 / defence 1.070 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.747 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.164. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 8 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Sukhothai FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Nakhon Ratchasima FC (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Sukhothai FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.72 / Sukhothai FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.015 / def 1.070 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.747 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sukhothai FC xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 56% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (1.01) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.75x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.21
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.65
0.93
Sukhothai FC xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
27.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.93 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Nakhon Ratchasima FC against 1.12 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Sukhothai FC in 25%.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Sukhothai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75%, Sukhothai FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 25% (Sukhothai FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 50% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 25% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.72 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 20%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62%, Sukhothai FC 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.38 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.