Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Khon Kaen United travel to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium this season.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Khon Kaen United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1 for Khon Kaen United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Khon Kaen United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Khon Kaen United in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53% versus Khon Kaen United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53% | Khon Kaen United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.67 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.075 / defence 1.142 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.797 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.220. Data: 36 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 36 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Draw 24% | Khon Kaen United 25%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Khon Kaen United 4.00. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% | Khon Kaen United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Draw 24% | Khon Kaen United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.67 / Khon Kaen United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.075 / def 1.142 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.797 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Khon Kaen United xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 0 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 50% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United?
Record (2 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 1 | Khon Kaen United 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Khon Kaen United's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.12
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.78
1.11
Khon Kaen United xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
5%
20.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.11 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent record stands at 12W 9D 15L from 36 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khon Kaen United, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 16L across 36 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.25 PPG, Khon Kaen United on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khon Kaen United's away record stands at 4W 3D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.89 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-1 Khon Kaen United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Khon Kaen United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 50% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Khon Kaen United in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Ratchasima FC edge out Khon Kaen United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Khon Kaen United 1-0 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.67 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khon Kaen United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.14 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.80 / defence 1.17, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Draw 24% | Khon Kaen United 25%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53%, Khon Kaen United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.25 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.