Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Chonburi FC travel to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 November 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chonburi FC are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chonburi FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Chonburi FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chonburi FC trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51% versus Chonburi FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49% | Chonburi FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.93 xG and Chonburi FC 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.902 / defence 1.199 | Chonburi FC attack 1.406 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.208. Chonburi FC's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Chonburi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.406 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 43 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 16% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 62%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Chonburi FC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% | Chonburi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Nov 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 16% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.93 / Chonburi FC 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.902 / def 1.199 | Chonburi FC attack 1.406 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Chonburi FC xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 20 November 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 16% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W | Draws 1 | Chonburi FC 0W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.90) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
16%
6.40
22%
4.53
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.96
2.04
Chonburi FC xG
6.40
16%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
13%
7.66
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
2%
49.04
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 2.04 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 11D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 1.65 PPG from 43 outings (20W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Chonburi FC have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.74 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 20W 11D 12L in their last 43 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Chonburi FC's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%, Chonburi FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 57% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 62% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 57% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Chonburi FC 1-0 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.93 xG and Chonburi FC 2.04 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Chonburi FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.79, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 16% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 62%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49%, Chonburi FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.