Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Nakhon Ratchasima FC welcome Buriram United to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1 for Buriram United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus Buriram United 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% | Buriram United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.94 xG and Buriram United 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.969 / defence 1.254 | Buriram United attack 1.035 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 1.069. Data: 22 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 22 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 47%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Buriram United 2.13. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Buriram United 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.94 / Buriram United 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.969 / def 1.254 | Buriram United attack 1.035 / def 0.976 | league avg home 0.996 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Buriram United xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 3 Buriram United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 25% chance of winning, Buriram United a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Buriram United's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
25%
3.97
28%
3.58
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.33
1.39
Buriram United xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
6%
15.90
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.39 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent record stands at 7W 6D 9L from 22 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 15W 3D 4L across 22 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nakhon Ratchasima FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have managed 5W 3D 3L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Buriram United's away record stands at 7W 1D 3L across 11 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 1.64 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 15W 3D 4L in their last 22 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.64 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Buriram United in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Buriram United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Buriram United have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46%, Buriram United 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 27% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Buriram United in 46%; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Buriram United in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 27% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 27% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.94 xG and Buriram United 1.39 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Buriram United outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.25 against Buriram United attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 47%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46%, Buriram United 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Buriram United's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.