Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-4 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bangkok United (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Bangkok United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Bangkok United travel to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 February 2023, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bangkok United — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bangkok United are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 2 for Bangkok United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Bangkok United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bangkok United in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49% versus Bangkok United 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49% | Bangkok United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.89 xG and Bangkok United 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.855 / defence 1.106 | Bangkok United attack 0.915 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.206. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 47 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% | Draw 33% | Bangkok United 42%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Bangkok United 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bangkok United are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bangkok United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 70% | Bangkok United 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% | Draw 33% | Bangkok United 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.89 / Bangkok United 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.855 / def 1.106 | Bangkok United attack 0.915 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Bangkok United xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 4 Bangkok United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 25% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United?
Record (3 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 1 | Bangkok United 2W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Bangkok United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.85) and Bangkok United's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
25%
4.00
33%
3.04
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.10
1.22
Bangkok United xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
7%
13.55
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.22 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 14W 11D 22L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 25W 12D 10L from 47 games, 1.85 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 9W 5D 9L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bangkok United's season.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.70 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 25W 12D 10L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.35 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2023, when Bangkok United won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
5
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Bangkok United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%, Bangkok United 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 30% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bangkok United in 30%; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Bangkok United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 39% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 30% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bangkok United run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-4 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.89 xG and Bangkok United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bangkok United outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Bangkok United attack 0.92 / defence 0.76, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% | Draw 33% | Bangkok United 42%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49%, Bangkok United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bangkok United's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.