Nakhon Pathom 0-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom host Sukhothai FC at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nakhon Pathom — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nakhon Pathom have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Sukhothai FC have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sukhothai FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nakhon Pathom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sukhothai FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nakhon Pathom, 1 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Pathom in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 67% and Sukhothai FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Nakhon Pathom 64% | Sukhothai FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.86 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.759 / defence 1.278 | Sukhothai FC attack 1.057 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.156. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing Nakhon Pathom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Nakhon Pathom games / 37 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 42% | Draw 28% | Sukhothai FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Sukhothai FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sukhothai FC (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 60% | Sukhothai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 42% | Draw 28% | Sukhothai FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 70% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.86 / Sukhothai FC 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.759 / def 1.278 | Sukhothai FC attack 1.057 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Sukhothai FC xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC?
Nakhon Pathom 0 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 42% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC?
Record (2 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nakhon Pathom's attack at 0.76x the league average against Sukhothai FC's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.57
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
3.42
1.56
Sukhothai FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
5%
21.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.56 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 10D 17L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 10W 6D 20L from 36 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Pathom on 1.03 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 4D 12L from 17 away games — 0.41 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.25 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Sukhothai FC in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 6D 20L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.12 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nakhon Pathom's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
2
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Sukhothai FC 0-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nakhon Pathom at 71%, Sukhothai FC at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Nakhon Pathom and 76% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 71% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 76% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Nakhon Pathom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Nakhon Pathom 0-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.86 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.56 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Pathom fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.76 / defence 1.28 against Sukhothai FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.44, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 42% | Draw 28% | Sukhothai FC 30%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sukhothai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 64%, Sukhothai FC 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 1.03 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.