Muangthong United 2-1 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Suphanburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Muangthong United host Suphanburi at SCG Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Muangthong United stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SCG Stadium, Muangthong United have gone 3W 2D 0L this season (5 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Muangthong United are significantly better at SCG Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Suphanburi have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suphanburi's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
On current form, Muangthong United have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Muangthong United in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Suphanburi in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 70% and Suphanburi 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 60% | Suphanburi 60%). Note also that Suphanburi surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Muangthong United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.56 xG and Suphanburi 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.267 / defence 1.172 | Suphanburi attack 0.675 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.300. Muangthong United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Muangthong United games / 10 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 50% | Draw 25% | Suphanburi 25%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Suphanburi 4.00. Muangthong United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 100% | Suphanburi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: SCG Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 50% | Draw 25% | Suphanburi 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Muangthong United 1.56 / Suphanburi 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.267 / def 1.172 | Suphanburi attack 0.675 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Suphanburi xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Suphanburi kick off?
Muangthong United vs Suphanburi kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at SCG Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Suphanburi?
Muangthong United 2 - 1 Suphanburi.
Where is Muangthong United vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at SCG Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Suphanburi part of?
Muangthong United vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 50% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Muangthong United and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Suphanburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Muangthong United and Suphanburi in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Suphanburi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Muangthong United's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Suphanburi's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Suphanburi's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
50%
2.02
25%
3.94
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.58
1.03
Suphanburi xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.03 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Muangthong United come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 3D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Suphanburi sit at 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Suphanburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Muangthong United's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Suphanburi have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Suphanburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Muangthong United are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.10 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Suphanburi in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Suphanburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Suphanburi away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.50 PPG; Suphanburi away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Muangthong United
1
Draws
0
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 1, Suphanburi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Suphanburi 1-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Suphanburi?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Suphanburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Muangthong United at 100%, Suphanburi at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Muangthong United and 50% for Suphanburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suphanburi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Suphanburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Muangthong United's games and 50% of Suphanburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Muangthong United's matches and 50% of Suphanburi's.
Do Muangthong United and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Suphanburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Suphanburi 2-1 at SCG Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.56 xG and Suphanburi 1.03 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.27 / defence 1.17 against Suphanburi attack 0.68 / defence 1.15, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 50% | Draw 25% | Suphanburi 25%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 60%, Suphanburi 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Suphanburi's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.