Muangthong United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Thunderdome Stadium to face Muangthong United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Muangthong United (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Thunderdome Stadium, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunderdome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Lamphun Warrior are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Muangthong United, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Lamphun Warrior — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Muangthong United and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 55% versus Lamphun Warrior 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 55% | Lamphun Warrior 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.30 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 0.785 / defence 1.496 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.895 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.147. Muangthong United's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Muangthong United games / 50 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 31% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 42%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Lamphun Warrior 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Muangthong United dominate the H2H record, yet Lamphun Warrior are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Muangthong United 40% | Lamphun Warrior 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Thunderdome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 31% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Muangthong United 1.30 / Lamphun Warrior 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 0.785 / def 1.496 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.895 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Lamphun Warrior xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Thunderdome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Muangthong United 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thunderdome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 31% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (7 meetings): Muangthong United 5W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 0.79x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.90x) against Muangthong United's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
31%
3.22
27%
3.69
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.83
1.54
Lamphun Warrior xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.54 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 16W 10D 23L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 11W 20D 18L across 49 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Muangthong United against 1.08 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 12W 3D 9L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 4W 9D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.27 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 16W 10D 23L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 11W 20D 18L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Muangthong United's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 1.62 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 0-5 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
2
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Muangthong United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 50%, Lamphun Warrior 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Muangthong United) and 46% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 58% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Muangthong United's recent games and 46% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.30 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.54 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.79 / defence 1.50 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 31% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 42%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 55%, Lamphun Warrior 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.18 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.