Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Chiangrai United to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Chiangrai United — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 1.30 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Lamphun Warrior, 2 for Chiangrai United and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 59% versus Chiangrai United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 47% | Chiangrai United 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.66 xG and Chiangrai United 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.968 / defence 1.062 | Chiangrai United attack 1.222 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.041. Chiangrai United have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Lamphun Warrior games / 58 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 43% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 29%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Chiangrai United 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Chiangrai United 90% BTTS from recent games.

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