Lamphun Warrior 0-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
700th Anniversary Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Buriram United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 7 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 0W 3D 4L across 7 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.43 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.29 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Buriram United have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 1.67 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.10 vs 0.43). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Lamphun Warrior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 86% of games.
Buriram United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 14% versus Buriram United 100%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 14% | Buriram United 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 0.84 xG and Buriram United 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.661 / defence 1.148 | Buriram United attack 1.498 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.148. Lamphun Warrior's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Lamphun Warrior games / 37 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 15% | Draw 21% | Buriram United 64%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | Buriram United 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 14% | Buriram United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 15% | Draw 21% | Buriram United 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG Lamphun Warrior 0.84 / Buriram United 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.661 / def 1.148 | Buriram United attack 1.498 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Buriram United xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 15% chance of winning, Buriram United a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.50x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
15%
6.56
21%
4.78
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.82
1.98
Buriram United xG
6.56
15%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
14%
7.21
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
2%
47.26
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.98 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 0.43 PPG on a 0W 3D 4L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United's form line: 5W 2D 0L from 7 games, 2.43 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 3.00 scored and 1.29 conceded. Buriram United's attacking output running into Lamphun Warrior's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games; Buriram United in 100%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 (2.43 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
6
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Buriram United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Buriram United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 14%, Buriram United 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Lamphun Warrior) and 86% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 86% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 14% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 100% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 86% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Lamphun Warrior 0-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 0.84 xG and Buriram United 1.98 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.66 / defence 1.15 against Buriram United attack 1.50 / defence 0.98, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 15% | Draw 21% | Buriram United 64%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 14%, Buriram United 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 86% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Buriram United's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamphun Warrior shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.