Lamphun Warrior 0-1 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bangkok United (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamphun Warrior face Bangkok United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United meet at Lamphun Warriors Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 January 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Lamphun Warriors Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bangkok United (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bangkok United arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 3 for Bangkok United and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Bangkok United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bangkok United — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 56% versus Bangkok United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 60% | Bangkok United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.38 xG and Bangkok United 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.948 / defence 1.238 | Bangkok United attack 1.270 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.175. Bangkok United have an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Lamphun Warrior games / 48 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 28% | Draw 25% | Bangkok United 47%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Bangkok United 2.13. Bangkok United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bangkok United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 50% | Bangkok United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 28% | Draw 25% | Bangkok United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.38 / Bangkok United 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.948 / def 1.238 | Bangkok United attack 1.270 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Bangkok United xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 1 Bangkok United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 28% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United?
Record (5 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 1 | Bangkok United 3W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Bangkok United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.95) and Bangkok United's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bangkok United's attack (1.27x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
28%
3.62
25%
3.98
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.23
1.85
Bangkok United xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
4%
22.96
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.85 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 14W 14D 20L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 6L across 48 games — 2.04 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bangkok United by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bangkok United's away record stands at 14W 5D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.94 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 14W 14D 20L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 28W 14D 6L in their last 48 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.62 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bangkok United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
5
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Bangkok United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 67%, Bangkok United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Lamphun Warrior and 62% for Bangkok United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Bangkok United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 54% of Bangkok United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 62% of Bangkok United's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Lamphun Warrior 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Lamphun Warrior 0-1 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.38 xG and Bangkok United 1.85 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bangkok United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Bangkok United attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 28% | Draw 25% | Bangkok United 47%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 60%, Bangkok United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bangkok United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Bangkok United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.