Lampang FC 1-3 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lampang FC vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lampang Provincial Stadium plays host to Lampang FC versus Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 12 March 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Lampang FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lampang FC at Lampang Provincial Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Port FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Port FC are 0.70 PPG clear of Lampang FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lampang FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lampang FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lampang FC 50% and Port FC 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lampang FC 54% | Port FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lampang FC 0.83 xG and Port FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lampang FC attack 0.675 / defence 1.297 | Port FC attack 0.979 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.125. Lampang FC's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Lampang FC games / 52 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lampang FC 20% | Draw 30% | Port FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Lampang FC 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | Port FC 2.04. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lampang FC 50% | Port FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lampang FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Lampang Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lampang FC 20% | Draw 30% | Port FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Lampang FC 0.83 / Port FC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lampang FC attack 0.675 / def 1.297 | Port FC attack 0.979 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Port FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Lampang FC xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Port FC xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lampang FC vs Port FC kick off?
Lampang FC vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Lampang FC vs Port FC?
Lampang FC 1 - 3 Port FC.
Where is Lampang FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Lampang FC vs Port FC part of?
Lampang FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lampang FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Lampang FC a 20% chance of winning, Port FC a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lampang FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lampang FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lampang FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Port FC?
Record (1 meetings): Lampang FC 0W | Draws 0 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Lampang FC and Port FC in?
Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lampang FC's attack at 0.68x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.98x) against Lampang FC's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
20%
4.94
30%
3.30
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Lampang FC xG
Total xG
2.26
1.43
Port FC xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
5%
20.59
22%
4.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 14.9 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lampang FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lampang FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Lampang FC and 1.43 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Lampang FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lampang FC come into this having played 22 games, going 3W 6D 13L for 0.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (8W 9D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Lampang FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lampang FC's home form reads 2W 2D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.10 points per game from 10 outings (2W 5D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lampang FC are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.59 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lampang FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lampang FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Lampang FC have gone 3W 6D 13L in their last 22 games (0.68 PPG), while Port FC have gone 8W 9D 5L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lampang FC at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lampang FC at home: 0.80 PPG; Port FC away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lampang FC
0
Draws
2
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Port FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Lampang FC have won 0, Port FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lampang FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Lampang FC 1-3 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Lampang FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lampang FC 50%, Port FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lampang FC) and 40% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Lampang FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Port FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lampang FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lampang FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lampang FC's games and 60% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lampang FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Lampang FC's recent games and 40% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lampang FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Lampang FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Port FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lampang FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Lampang FC 1-3 at Lampang Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lampang FC 0.83 xG and Port FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lampang FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.30 against Port FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lampang FC 20% | Draw 30% | Port FC 49%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lampang FC 54%, Port FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lampang FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Lampang FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.