Khon Kaen United 3-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khon Kaen United at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Khon Kaen United welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Khon Kaen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Khon Kaen United have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Khon Kaen Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Khon Kaen United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Khon Kaen United, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 46% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.10 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.809 / defence 0.855 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.644 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.073. Data: 50 Khon Kaen United games / 50 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 47% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.26. Khon Kaen United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khon Kaen United as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 40% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 47% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 30% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.10 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.809 / def 0.855 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.644 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
30%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Khon Kaen United 3 - 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 47% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (3 meetings): Khon Kaen United 1W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.81x the league average against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.7%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
47%
2.12
34%
2.96
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
1.69
0.59
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.28
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.3 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 0.59 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khon Kaen United's recent record stands at 14W 16D 20L from 50 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 23L across 50 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 1.16 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khon Kaen United have managed 9W 9D 6L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 4W 6D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.94 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 14W 16D 20L in their last 50 games (1.16 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 14W 13D 23L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.50 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-1 Khon Kaen United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 38%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Khon Kaen United) and 46% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 42% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khon Kaen United edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-2 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.10 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.59 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 0.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.64 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 47% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 34%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.16 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.