Kanchanaburi 1-2 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kanchanaburi at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kanchanaburi and Ayutthaya FC meet at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kanchanaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 4L from 9 games (0.78 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kanchanaburi at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium this season: 1W 3D 0L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.78 — Kanchanaburi are significantly better at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ayutthaya FC (all games): 1W 4D 4L across 9 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.78 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ayutthaya FC have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.78 for Kanchanaburi, 0.78 for Ayutthaya FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Kanchanaburi half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Ayutthaya FC half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kanchanaburi 33% and Ayutthaya FC 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 33% | Ayutthaya FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.64 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.971 / defence 1.018 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.060 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.135. Data: 9 Kanchanaburi games / 9 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 45% | Draw 29% | Ayutthaya FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Ayutthaya FC 3.85. Kanchanaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kanchanaburi at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kanchanaburi if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kanchanaburi 50% | Ayutthaya FC 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kanchanaburi Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 45% | Draw 29% | Ayutthaya FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Kanchanaburi 1.64 / Ayutthaya FC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Kanchanaburi attack 0.971 / def 1.018 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.060 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Kanchanaburi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Kanchanaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ayutthaya FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Kanchanaburi 1 - 2 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What competition is Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Kanchanaburi a 45% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kanchanaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kanchanaburi and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Ayutthaya FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kanchanaburi and Ayutthaya FC in?
Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.89 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kanchanaburi's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (1.06x) against Kanchanaburi's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kanchanaburi Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.50
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Kanchanaburi xG
Total xG
2.87
1.22
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Kanchanaburi and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 1.22 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kanchanaburi's recent record stands at 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ayutthaya FC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 4L across 9 games — 0.78 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Kanchanaburi against 0.78 for Ayutthaya FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kanchanaburi have managed 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Kanchanaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ayutthaya FC's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kanchanaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.44 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 89%.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kanchanaburi and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Kanchanaburi have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kanchanaburi at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Kanchanaburi's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kanchanaburi at home: 1.50 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kanchanaburi
0
Draws
1
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Kanchanaburi have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kanchanaburi and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 0-2 Kanchanaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kanchanaburi 50%, Ayutthaya FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Kanchanaburi and 75% for Ayutthaya FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kanchanaburi home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kanchanaburi play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kanchanaburi's games and 75% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kanchanaburi vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kanchanaburi's matches and 75% of Ayutthaya FC's.
Do Kanchanaburi and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Kanchanaburi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ayutthaya FC defy the odds to beat Kanchanaburi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ayutthaya FC beat Kanchanaburi 1-2 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.64 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 45% | Draw 29% | Ayutthaya FC 26%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Ayutthaya FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 33%, Ayutthaya FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kanchanaburi 0.78 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.