Chonburi FC 2-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Sukhothai FC travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chonburi FC, 3 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 58% versus Sukhothai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 46% | Sukhothai FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.70 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.844 / defence 1.077 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.583 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.143. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Chonburi FC games / 54 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 59% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Sukhothai FC lead the H2H ledger, but Chonburi FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 70% | Sukhothai FC 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 59% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Chonburi FC 1.70 / Sukhothai FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.844 / def 1.077 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.583 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Sukhothai FC xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Chonburi FC 2 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 59% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (5 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 3W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.84) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.67
14%
7.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.42
0.72
Sukhothai FC xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
7.36
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
2%
40.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.72 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 7D 10L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.00 PPG from 24 outings (5W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.17 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chonburi FC's home form reads 3W 4D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.27 points per game from 11 outings (0W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.75 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.18 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
1
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 64%, Sukhothai FC 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Chonburi FC and 36% for Sukhothai FC.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Sukhothai FC in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 36% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Sukhothai FC 2-0 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.70 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.58 / defence 1.37, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 59% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 14%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 46%, Sukhothai FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.17 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.