Chonburi FC 1-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chonburi FC host Prachuap at Chonburi UTA Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Chonburi UTA Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Prachuap — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Prachuap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 0 for Prachuap and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Prachuap in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 65% and Prachuap 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 56% | Prachuap 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.88 xG and Prachuap 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.101 / defence 1.039 | Prachuap attack 1.244 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.139. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Prachuap have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Chonburi FC games / 34 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 47% | Draw 22% | Prachuap 30%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Prachuap 3.33. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 70% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 47% | Draw 22% | Prachuap 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Chonburi FC 1.88 / Prachuap 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.101 / def 1.039 | Prachuap attack 1.244 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Prachuap xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Chonburi FC 1 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap part of?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 47% chance of winning, Prachuap a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Chonburi FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
Record (2 meetings): Chonburi FC 2W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Prachuap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
47%
2.11
22%
4.48
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
3.35
1.47
Prachuap xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.47 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 15W 8D 11L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap's form line: 10W 7D 17L from 34 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 5W 3D 9L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.09 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 15W 8D 11L in their last 34 games (1.56 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 10W 7D 17L in their last 34 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Prachuap away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 3, Prachuap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 71%, Prachuap 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Chonburi FC) and 65% (Prachuap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Chonburi FC's games and 59% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Chonburi FC's matches and 65% of Prachuap's.
Do Chonburi FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Prachuap 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Prachuap 1-0 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.88 xG and Prachuap 1.47 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Prachuap landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Prachuap attack 1.24 / defence 1.36, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 47% | Draw 22% | Prachuap 30%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 56%, Prachuap 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Prachuap's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.