Chonburi FC 2-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 55%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chonburi FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chonburi FC host Prachuap at Chonburi Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 6W 3D 1L at Chonburi Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 0 for Prachuap and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Prachuap in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 65% versus Prachuap 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 54% | Prachuap 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 2.06 xG and Prachuap 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.161 / defence 1.129 | Prachuap attack 0.955 / defence 1.702. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.156. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.702 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Chonburi FC games / 26 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 55% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 21%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Prachuap 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 55% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Chonburi FC 2.06 / Prachuap 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.161 / def 1.129 | Prachuap attack 0.955 / def 1.702 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Prachuap xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Chonburi FC 2 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap part of?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 55% chance of winning, Prachuap a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Chonburi FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
Record (1 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Prachuap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 1.16x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.70x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.19
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
3.31
1.25
Prachuap xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
3%
36.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.25 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 11W 7D 8L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 8W 6D 12L from 26 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.54 PPG, Prachuap on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (7W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Chonburi FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 4W 2D 6L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.00 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 games (1.54 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Prachuap away?
Chonburi FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 3, Prachuap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 67%, Prachuap 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chonburi FC) and 58% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Prachuap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chonburi FC's games and 58% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 58% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Prachuap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Prachuap 2-1 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 2.06 xG and Prachuap 1.25 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.13 against Prachuap attack 0.95 / defence 1.70, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 55% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 21%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 54%, Prachuap 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.54 PPG, Prachuap 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.