Chonburi FC 2-1 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chonburi Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Pattaya United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC at Chonburi Stadium this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pattaya United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pattaya United have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Pattaya United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 60% and Pattaya United 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 50% | Pattaya United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.13 xG and Pattaya United 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.036 / defence 1.104 | Pattaya United attack 0.678 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.300. Data: 10 Chonburi FC games / 10 Pattaya United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 30% | Pattaya United 31%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Pattaya United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Chonburi FC 80% | Pattaya United 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 30% | Pattaya United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Chonburi FC 1.13 / Pattaya United 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.036 / def 1.104 | Pattaya United attack 0.678 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Pattaya United xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United?
Chonburi FC 2 - 1 Pattaya United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 39% chance of winning, Pattaya United a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chonburi FC and Pattaya United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Pattaya United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Pattaya United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Pattaya United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Pattaya United's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pattaya United's attack (0.68x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.36
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.11
0.97
Pattaya United xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Pattaya United expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.97 for Pattaya United, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pattaya United, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 3L across 10 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Pattaya United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.30 for Pattaya United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pattaya United's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chonburi FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Pattaya United are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Pattaya United in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Pattaya United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Pattaya United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Pattaya United have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Pattaya United away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Pattaya United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
0
Pattaya United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Pattaya United?
From 2 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Pattaya United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Pattaya United last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Pattaya United 1-2 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Pattaya United?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pattaya United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 80%, Pattaya United 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Chonburi FC and 20% for Pattaya United.
On the defensive side: Pattaya United in 40%; Pattaya United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Pattaya United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Pattaya United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Chonburi FC's games and 40% of Pattaya United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Pattaya United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 20% of Pattaya United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Pattaya United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Pattaya United in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Pattaya United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Pattaya United 2-1 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.13 xG and Pattaya United 0.97 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Pattaya United attack 0.68 / defence 1.02, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 30% | Pattaya United 31%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 50%, Pattaya United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pattaya United's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.50 PPG, Pattaya United 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pattaya United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.