Chonburi FC 2-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Chonburi Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 23 January 2022 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Chonburi FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chonburi FC at Chonburi Stadium this season: 5W 3D 1L from 9 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Khon Kaen United have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Khon Kaen United away from home this season: 3W 0D 5L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.12 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.70 for Khon Kaen United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chonburi FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 7–0 with Chonburi FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Khon Kaen United half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 59% versus Khon Kaen United 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 53% | Khon Kaen United 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.62 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.196 / defence 1.029 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.823 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.157. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Chonburi FC games / 17 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 52% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 23%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Khon Kaen United 4.35. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 67% | Khon Kaen United 38%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights