Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Chiangrai United travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangrai United have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chiangrai United are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chiangrai United in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Chonburi FC have won 2, Chiangrai United 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Chiangrai United trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 58% versus Chiangrai United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 50% | Chiangrai United 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.37 xG and Chiangrai United 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.901 / defence 1.071 | Chiangrai United attack 0.811 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Data: 36 Chonburi FC games / 36 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 33%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Chiangrai United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chiangrai United (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Chiangrai United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Chonburi FC 1.37 / Chiangrai United 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.901 / def 1.071 | Chiangrai United attack 0.811 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Chiangrai United xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 May 2027 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 38% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (9 meetings): Chonburi FC 2W | Draws 3 | Chiangrai United 4W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.90) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.56
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.64
1.26
Chiangrai United xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.26 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 11W 9D 16L from 36 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 12L across 36 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.17 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 6W 5D 7L from 18 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 2W 11D 5L across 18 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.11 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 10W 14D 12L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.28 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
3
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
From 9 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 61%, Chiangrai United at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Chonburi FC) and 39% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Chonburi FC's games and 83% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 39% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.