Chiangrai United 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC meet at Leo Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 2D 5L at Leo Chiangrai Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sukhothai FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Chiangrai United against 0.60 for Sukhothai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Chiangrai United, 2 for Sukhothai FC and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 53% versus Sukhothai FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 44% | Sukhothai FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.56 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.788 / defence 1.125 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.533 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.083. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Chiangrai United games / 56 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 57% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 13%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.75 | Draw 3.33 | Sukhothai FC 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Sukhothai FC 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 57% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Chiangrai United 1.56 / Sukhothai FC 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.788 / def 1.125 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.533 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Sukhothai FC xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Chiangrai United 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 57% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 13% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
Record (7 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 4 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.53x) against Chiangrai United's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
57%
1.75
30%
3.36
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.21
0.65
Sukhothai FC xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
3%
35.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.65 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 17W 14D 24L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 14W 18D 23L from 55 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.09 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.65 PPG from 26 outings (13W 4D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 9D 16L from 26 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 14W 18D 23L in their last 55 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.65 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sukhothai FC won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
5
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 35%, Sukhothai FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Chiangrai United) and 42% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 27% of games; Sukhothai FC in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 42% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 42% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.56 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.65 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.53 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 57% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 13%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 44%, Sukhothai FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.18 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.