Chiangrai United 0-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Ratchaburi travel to Singha Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.64 xG and Ratchaburi 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.207 / defence 1.330 | Ratchaburi attack 0.785 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.349. Data: 2 Chiangrai United games / 2 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 40% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 30%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Singha Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 40% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Chiangrai United 1.64 / Ratchaburi 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.207 / def 1.330 | Ratchaburi attack 0.785 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Ratchaburi xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Singha Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United 0 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Singha Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 40% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (1.21) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
40%
2.51
30%
3.28
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
3.05
1.41
Ratchaburi xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.41 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chiangrai United by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Chiangrai United's scoring rate against Ratchaburi's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 0%.
Defensively: Ratchaburi in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Chiangrai United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 0% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 0% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Chiangrai United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Singha Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.64 xG and Ratchaburi 1.41 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.21 / defence 1.33 against Ratchaburi attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 40% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 30%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 100%, Ratchaburi 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chiangrai United managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.