Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Ratchaburi travel to Leo Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Chiangrai United's home record at Leo Chiangrai Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ratchaburi haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ratchaburi's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 3 for Ratchaburi and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 10 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Chiangrai United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 63% and Ratchaburi 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 33% | Ratchaburi 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.31 xG and Ratchaburi 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.914 / defence 0.939 | Ratchaburi attack 1.167 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.020. Data: 30 Chiangrai United games / 30 Ratchaburi games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 39% | Draw 32% | Ratchaburi 30%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Ratchaburi 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Ratchaburi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 39% | Draw 32% | Ratchaburi 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Chiangrai United 1.31 / Ratchaburi 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.914 / def 0.939 | Ratchaburi attack 1.167 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Ratchaburi xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 39% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Record (10 meetings): Chiangrai United 4W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 3W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (0.91) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.16
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.42
1.12
Ratchaburi xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.12 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 9W 13D 8L from 30 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. Chiangrai United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 7L across 30 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. Ratchaburi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chiangrai United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 7W 3D 5L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 10W 1D 4L across 15 trips, a 2.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.83 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Pre-Season
Ratchaburi
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 9W 13D 8L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 18W 5D 7L in their last 30 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.60 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 40%, Ratchaburi 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Chiangrai United) and 60% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 60% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 60% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.