BG Pathum United 1-0 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bangkok United at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Bangkok United travel to LEO Stadium to take on BG Pathum United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 outings — a 1.86 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. BG Pathum United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BG Pathum United's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 2L across 5 games at LEO Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bangkok United stand at 6W 1D 1L from 8 Thai League 1 matches — 2.38 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 0.88. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Bangkok United have posted 3W 0D 1L from 4 away outings — 2.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bangkok United are 0.52 PPG ahead (2.38 vs 1.86), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
BG Pathum United trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Bangkok United trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 43% versus Bangkok United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 43% | Bangkok United 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.10 xG and Bangkok United 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.925 / defence 1.268 | Bangkok United attack 1.027 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.004 / away 1.240. Data: 7 BG Pathum United games / 8 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 26% | Draw 25% | Bangkok United 49%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Bangkok United 2.04. Bangkok United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bangkok United as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bangkok United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 40% | Bangkok United 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: LEO Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 26% | Draw 25% | Bangkok United 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG BG Pathum United 1.10 / Bangkok United 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.925 / def 1.268 | Bangkok United attack 1.027 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.004 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Bangkok United xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at LEO Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United?
BG Pathum United 1 - 0 Bangkok United.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at LEO Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United part of?
BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 26% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both BG Pathum United and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Bangkok United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BG Pathum United and Bangkok United in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Bangkok United (all comps): 6W-1D-1L in 8 | 2.38 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (0.93) and Bangkok United's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
26%
3.85
25%
4.04
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.72
1.61
Bangkok United xG
3.85
26%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
5%
19.37
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.61 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 4W 1D 2L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for BG Pathum United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bangkok United's form line: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games, 2.29 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bangkok United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against BG Pathum United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That actually lags their 1.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.57 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Early Season
Bangkok United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 1.00 PPG; Bangkok United away: 2.00 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BG Pathum United and Bangkok United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bangkok United have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2025, when Bangkok United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
BG Pathum United
2
Draws
6
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Bangkok United?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 2, Bangkok United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when BG Pathum United 0-1 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 33%, Bangkok United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for BG Pathum United and 67% for Bangkok United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 33%; BG Pathum United have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 67% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of BG Pathum United's matches and 67% of Bangkok United's.
Do BG Pathum United and Bangkok United tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BG Pathum United defy the odds to beat Bangkok United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Bangkok United 1-0 at LEO Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.10 xG and Bangkok United 1.61 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bangkok United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.93 / defence 1.27 against Bangkok United attack 1.03 / defence 1.19, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 26% | Draw 25% | Bangkok United 49%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual BG Pathum United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 43%, Bangkok United 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Bangkok United's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.86. Form was overturned, with BG Pathum United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.