Bangkok United 0-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bangkok United at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Thammasat Stadium to face Bangkok United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bangkok United have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United at Thammasat Stadium this season: 6W 2D 0L from 8 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thammasat Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bangkok United are significantly better at Thammasat Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Bangkok United's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bangkok United lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Bangkok United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bangkok United — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bangkok United 42% versus Ratchaburi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bangkok United 37% | Ratchaburi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 1.79 xG and Ratchaburi 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.357 / defence 0.888 | Ratchaburi attack 0.714 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.136. Bangkok United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ratchaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Bangkok United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Bangkok United games / 19 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 63% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 14%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Ratchaburi 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bangkok United are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Bangkok United 50% | Ratchaburi 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 63% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 43% | xG Bangkok United 1.79 / Ratchaburi 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.357 / def 0.888 | Ratchaburi attack 0.714 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Ratchaburi xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Bangkok United 0 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 63% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bangkok United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Bangkok United 1W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 0W.
What form are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi in?
Bangkok United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bangkok United's attack rating (1.36) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.71x) against Bangkok United's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.46
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
2.52
0.72
Ratchaburi xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
2%
41.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Bangkok United and 0.72 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Bangkok United have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 11W 3D 5L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 5W 5D 9L from 19 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bangkok United have posted 2.50 PPG from 8 outings (6W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Bangkok United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 0W 3D 5L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bangkok United are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.05 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 11W 3D 5L in their last 19 games (1.89 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Bangkok United's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 2.50 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-4 on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bangkok United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bangkok United
2
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 6, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bangkok United 1-4 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bangkok United 50%, Ratchaburi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bangkok United) and 50% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bangkok United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bangkok United's recent matches and 50% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bangkok United's recent games and 50% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bangkok United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Bangkok United have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bangkok United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Bangkok United and Ratchaburi drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.79 xG and Ratchaburi 0.72 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bangkok United fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.36 / defence 0.89 against Ratchaburi attack 0.71 / defence 1.29, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 63% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 14%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 37%, Ratchaburi 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.