Servette FC 3-2 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Servette FC at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Servette FC host Yverdon Sport at Stade de Genève in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Servette FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Servette FC have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Servette FC at Stade de Genève this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Servette FC are significantly better at Stade de Genève than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Yverdon Sport have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Yverdon Sport away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Servette FC at 1.60 PPG versus Yverdon Sport's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Servette FC, 2 for Yverdon Sport and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Yverdon Sport winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Servette FC in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 62% and Yverdon Sport 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 49% | Yverdon Sport 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 2.17 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 1.145 / defence 0.927 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.888 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.212. Data: 35 Servette FC games / 34 Yverdon Sport games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Servette FC 64% | Draw 20% | Yverdon Sport 16%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Yverdon Sport 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Servette FC (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Servette FC are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Servette FC 60% | Yverdon Sport 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 64% | Draw 20% | Yverdon Sport 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG Servette FC 2.17 / Yverdon Sport 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 1.145 / def 0.927 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.888 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Yverdon Sport xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport?
Servette FC 3 - 2 Yverdon Sport.
Where is Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport part of?
Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 64% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Servette FC and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and Yverdon Sport?
Record (3 meetings): Servette FC 1W | Draws 0 | Yverdon Sport 2W.
What form are Servette FC and Yverdon Sport in?
Servette FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (1.15) and Yverdon Sport's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus Servette FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
64%
1.56
20%
5.09
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.16
1.00
Yverdon Sport xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
11%
8.72
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
2%
53.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Servette FC and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.00 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Servette FC's recent record stands at 19W 10D 10L from 39 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Servette FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Yverdon Sport, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 18L across 39 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Servette FC by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yverdon Sport heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Servette FC have managed 12W 3D 4L from 19 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yverdon Sport's away record stands at 1W 4D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.37 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Servette FC are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.28 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Yverdon Sport in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Early Season
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Servette FC and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 19W 10D 10L in their last 39 games (1.72 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 13W 8D 18L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or Yverdon Sport away?
Servette FC's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 2.05 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Servette FC and Yverdon Sport runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Yverdon Sport won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Servette FC's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Servette FC
1
Draws
3
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and Yverdon Sport?
From 6 meetings on record, Servette FC have won 2, Yverdon Sport have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Servette FC 2-3 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Servette FC 63%, Yverdon Sport 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Servette FC) and 53% (Yverdon Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Servette FC play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Servette FC's games and 63% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Servette FC's matches and 53% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do Servette FC and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
Servette FC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Servette FC edge out Yverdon Sport 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat Yverdon Sport 3-2 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 2.17 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.00 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Servette FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yverdon Sport outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 64% | Draw 20% | Yverdon Sport 16%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 49%, Yverdon Sport 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.